The California ISO has posted its 2024 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment on its website.
The assessment is available on the Reports and bulletins webpage, under the Seasonal assessments heading.
The 2024 Summer Loads and Resource Assessment (Summer Assessment) evaluates expected 2024 summer supply and demand conditions for the California Independent System Operator (ISO) balancing authority area (BAA). The ISO publishes and shares results of the Summer Assessment each year with state regulatory agencies, industry participants, and stakeholders. This Summer Assessment fits into a broader collaborative effort on behalf of the ISO, California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), and California Energy Commission (CEC) to prepare for summer system operations and maintain grid reliability.
The 2024 Summer Assessment indicates continued improvement in resource availability for the upcoming summer driven by accelerated resource development. These gains, supported by average hydro conditions and softening of the summer 2024 load forecast peak demand, more than offset retirements and the transition of gas-fired once-through cooling generation into the state’s strategic reserves and result in increased overall reserve margins exceeding current capacity and performance target levels. The ISO’s probabilistic assessment of the anticipated 2024 summer conditions indicates a surplus meeting the “one day every 10 years loss-of-load expectation” (“1-in-10 LOLE”) planning target.
These results do not take into account more extreme events such as those demonstrated in the last several years, including extreme drought, wildfires and the continued potential for widespread regional heating events and other disruptions, that continue to pose a high risk of outages to the ISO grid. |
