Executive Summary
The purpose of this report is to provide market participants a monthly summary of day-ahead and real-time markets performance for January, 2026. The key market performance highlights are presented here:
CAISO area performance:
Peak loads for ISO area decreased a little in 2026 January compared to the previous month.
The cumulative frequency of prices in FMM above $250/MWh remained at 0 from 2025 December to 2026 January, while the cumulative frequency of negative prices decreased from 2.23 percent in 2025 December to 2.21 percent in 2026 January. The cumulative frequency of prices in RTD above $250/MWh increased from 0 in 2025 December to 0.01 percent in 2026 January, while the cumulative frequency of negative prices increased from 2.37 percent in 2025 December to 2.59 percent in 2026 January.
Average Day-Ahead, FMM and RTD DLAP prices in PGAE, SCE, SDGE, and VEA all decreased between from December 2025 to January 2026. This downward trend was likely driven by increased renewable generation in neighboring Balancing Authority Areas (BAAs), which suppressed Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) system-wide.
The cumulative total congestion rent for interties increased from $1.85 million in 2025 December to $2.63 million in 2026 January. Majority of the congestion rents in January accrued on MALIN500_ISL(74.4%) and NOB_ITC(23.7%). Congestion rents on the MALIN500_ISL increased from $788,869 in 2025 December to $1,955,708 in 2026 January. Congestion rent of NOB_ITC decreased from $768,920 in 2025 December to $622,774 in 2026 January.
Net Monthly Balancing Surplus in January was $7,786,804. The auction revenues credited to the balancing account for January were $8.84 million. As a result, the balancing account had a surplus of approximately $16.63 million compared to $8.93 million in the previous month, which was allocated to measured demand.
In January the monthly IFM average procurement increased for regulation up and non-spinning, while decreased for regulation-down and spinning reserves compared to the previous month. The monthly IFM average prices increased for regulation up, regulation down, spinning and non-spinning reserves compared to the previous month. Day-ahead ancillary service prices remained volatile in January, similar to the previous month.
The total bid cost recovery decreased from $15.5 million in 2025 December to $9.84 million in 2026 January. Out of the total monthly bid cost recovery payment for the three markets in Jan, the IFM market contributed 15.9 percent, RUC contributed 23.5 percent, and RTM contributed 60.5 percent of the total bid cost recovery payment.
RTIEO increased from -$3.33 million in 2025 December to $4.08 million in 2026 January. RTCO decreased from $4.91 million in 2025 December to -$0.245 million in 2026 January.
The monthly exceptional dispatch uplift payments decreased from $3,804,777 in 2025 December to $2,096,590 in 2026 January.
The number of market disruptions increased from 8 in 2025 December to 20 in 2026 January. On Jan 26, there were 7 (4 RTD, 2 FMM, 1 HASP) disruptions due to implementation of a market software patch.
The total volume of exceptional dispatch decreased from 156,988 MWh in 2025 December to 156,062 MWh in 2026 January.
The curtailment of renewable energy decreased a little in 2026 January compared to the previous month. Most curtailments continued to be solar.
Flexible ramping up uncertainty payment increased from -$7,672 in 2025 December to -$863 in 2026 January. Flexible ramping down uncertainty payment increased from $928 in December to $994 in 2026 January. Flexible ramping forecast payment decreased from $119,094 in 2025 December to -$79,162 in 2026 January.
Western Energy Imbalance Market (WEIM) performance:
The FMM, RTD ELAP prices in 2026 January decreased for all BAA except for EPE, PNM and WALC. Besides, FMM ELAP prices were similarly volatile compared to the previous month.
The cumulative frequency of FMM ELAP prices above $250/MWh increased from 0.0428 percent in 2025 December to 0.0535 percent in 2026 January. The cumulative frequency of negative FMM ELAP prices increased from 1.94 percent in 2025 December to 1.71 percent in 2026 January. The cumulative frequency of RTD ELAP prices above $250/MWh decreased from 0.0657 percent in 2025 December to 0.0351 percent in 2026 January. The cumulative frequency of RTD ELAP negative prices decreased from 2.16 percent in 2025 December to 2.11 percent in 2026 January.
Total WEIM RTIEO decreased from $5.68 million in 2025 December to $4.56 million in 2026 January. Total WEIM RTCO increased from -$4.48 million in 2025 December to -$4.34 million in 2026 January.
Total WEIM BCR decreased from $1.82 million in 2025 December to $1.21 million in 2026 January.
Total flexible ramping up uncertainty payment decreased from $0.439 million in 2025 December to $0.185 million in 2026 January.
Total flexible ramping down uncertainty payment decreased from $18,955 in 2025 December to $9,371 in 2026 January.
Total forecast payment decreased from $376,874 in 2025 December to $118,617 in 2026 January.
| Month | WEIM | FMM ELAP Prices | RTD ELAP Prices | Price Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | AVA | $27.74 | $28.69 | -$0.95 |
| 2026-01 | AVRN | $27.22 | $28.10 | -$0.88 |
| 2026-01 | AZPS | $28.69 | $30.07 | -$1.37 |
| 2026-01 | BANC | $33.09 | $33.89 | -$0.80 |
| 2026-01 | BCHA | $25.18 | $25.05 | $0.14 |
| 2026-01 | BPAT | $26.71 | $26.92 | -$0.21 |
| 2026-01 | EPE | $37.40 | $36.48 | $0.92 |
| 2026-01 | IPCO | $28.25 | $29.41 | -$1.16 |
| 2026-01 | LADWP | $34.33 | $35.37 | -$1.04 |
| 2026-01 | NEVP | $28.94 | $29.90 | -$0.96 |
| 2026-01 | NWMT | $27.53 | $28.66 | -$1.13 |
| 2026-01 | PACE | $28.21 | $29.88 | -$1.66 |
| 2026-01 | PACW | $26.52 | $27.64 | -$1.12 |
| 2026-01 | PGE | $26.54 | $27.47 | -$0.93 |
| 2026-01 | PNM | $25.95 | $27.66 | -$1.71 |
| 2026-01 | PSEI | $26.62 | $27.44 | -$0.82 |
| 2026-01 | SCL | $26.60 | $27.46 | -$0.86 |
| 2026-01 | SRP | $28.18 | $29.58 | -$1.40 |
| 2026-01 | TEPC | $28.67 | $30.06 | -$1.39 |
| 2026-01 | TIDC | $33.23 | $34.07 | -$0.84 |
| 2026-01 | TPWR | $26.57 | $27.42 | -$0.85 |
| 2026-01 | WALC | $28.70 | $30.44 | -$1.74 |