3 Market Performance Metrics
Day-Ahead Prices
Figure 2 shows the daily simple average prices for all hours in IFM for each of the four default load-aggregation points (DLAP): PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, and VEA.
Day-Ahead DLAP prices on average decreased compared to the previous month, correlated with falling natural gas prices. Prices remained volatile compared to the previous month. Prices were lower than the same month in the previous year.
TABLE 3 below lists the binding constraints that resulted in relatively high or low DLAP prices on certain dates.
Figure 2: IFM (Day-Ahead) Simple Average DLAP Prices (All Hours)
| DLAP LMPs Affected | Dates | Transmission Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| PGAE | March 1-5 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; OMS-14513059-LOSBNS_BUS_OUTAGE nomogram; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| All | March 6 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE | March 7-11 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| SDGE | March 12 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; SUNCREST-SUNCREST 500kV XFMR |
| PGAE | March 13-14 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; CSSF TAP-AMES-BS 115kV line; TELSA-LOSBANOS 500kV line |
| All | March 15 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; GATES1-GATES-500 XFMR |
| PGAE | March 16-17 | MOSSLD-LASGAUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| All | March 18 | MOSSLD-LASGAUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE | March 19-21 | MOSSLD-LASGAUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| All | March 22 | MOSSLD-LASGAUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE | March 23-27 | OMS 15410670 TL13810 NG nomogram; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 28-30 | 7820_TL 50002_IV-NG-OUT_TDM nomogram; GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
Real-Time Price
Figure 3 shows daily simple average prices for all four DLAPs (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, and VEA) for all hours respectively in FMM.
FMM DLAP prices on average decreased compared to the previous month, correlated with falling natural gas prices. Prices remained volatile compared to the previous month. Prices were lower than the same month in the previous year.
TABLE 4 below lists the binding constraints that resulted in relatively high or low DLAP prices on certain dates.
Figure 3: FMM Simple Average DLAP Prices (All Hours)
| DLAP LMPs Affected | Dates | Transmission Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| PGAE | March 1 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| All | March 2 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE | March 3-5 | TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; OMS-14513059-LOSBNS_BUS_OUTAGE; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; ROUND MT-ROUND MT- 500 XFMR |
| All | March 6 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; DEVERS-DEVERS-500 XFMR |
| PGAE | March 7-13 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; ROUND-MT-ROUND-MT 500kV XFMR; 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; DEVERS-DEVERS-500 XFMR |
| All | March 14-16 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS 500kV line; GATES1-GATES-500 XFMR |
| PGAE; SDGE; SCE | March 18 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; GATES1-GATES-500 XFMR |
| PGAE | March 20 | TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 22-23 | OMS 15244988_TL23054_NG nomogram; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; OMS 15244989_TL23054_NG nomogram; GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line |
| PGAE | March 24-26 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; GATES1-DIABLO-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 27-28 | 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; 7820_TL 50002_IV-NG-OUT_TDM nomogram; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE | March 29 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line |
| All | March 30 | 7820_TL 50002_IV-NG-OUT_TDM nomogram |
Figure 4 below shows the daily frequency of positive price spikes and negative prices by price range for the DLAPs in the FMM.
The cumulative frequency of prices in FMM above $250/MWh increased to 0.01 percent in March from 0 percent in the previous month, while the cumulative frequency of negative prices increased to 23.50 percent in March from 11.97 percent in the previous month, correlated with an increase in renewable generation curtailment.
Figure 4: Daily Frequency of FMM DLAP Positive Price Spikes and Negative Prices
Figure 5 shows daily simple average prices for all the DLAPs (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E, and VEA) for all hours respectively in RTD.
RTD DLAP prices on average decreased compared to the previous month, correlated with falling natural gas prices. Prices remained volatile compared to the previous month. Prices were lower than the same month in the previous year.
TABLE 5 below lists the binding constraints that resulted in relatively high or low DLAP prices on certain dates.
Figure 5: RTD Simple Average DLAP Prices (All Hours)
| DLAP LMPs Affected | Dates | Transmission Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| PGAE | March 1 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| All | March 2 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE | March 3-5 | TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; OMS-14513059-LOSBNS_BUS_OUTAGE; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; ROUND MT-ROUND MT-500 XFMR |
| All | March 6-7 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; DEVERS-DEVERS-500 XFMR |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 8 | 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| PGAE | March 9-13 | TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; DEVERS-DEVERS-500 XFMR |
| All | March 14-16 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV lin; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; GATES1-GATES-500 XFMR |
| All | March 18 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; GATES1-GATES-500 XFMR |
| PGAE | March 20-21 | TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 22 | OMS 15244988_TL23054_NG nomogram; MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line |
| SCE; SDGE; VEA | March 23 | OMS 15244989_TL23054_NG nomogram; MIDWAY-VINCENT-500kV line; GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line |
| PGAE | March 25 | MOSSLD-LASAGUIL-230kV line; GATES1-DIABLO-500kV line |
| PGAE; SDGE | March 27-28 | 7820_TL 230S_OVERLOAD_NG nomogram; 7820_TL 50002_IV-NG-OUT_TDM nomogram; GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line; TESLA-LOSBANOS-500kV line |
| PGAE | March 29 | GATES1-MIDWAY-500kV line |
| All | March 30 | 7820_TL 50002_IV-NG-OUT_TDM nomogram |
Figure 6 below shows the daily frequency of positive price spikes and negative prices by price range for the DLAPs in RTD.
The cumulative frequency of prices in RTD above $250/MWh increased to 0.07 percent in March from 0.04 percent in the previous month, while the cumulative frequency of negative prices increased to 24.23 percent in March from 13.69 percent in the previous month, correlated with an increase in renewable generation curtailment.
Figure 6: Daily Frequency of RTD DLAP Positive Price Spikes and Negative Prices
